Adult Social Care Workforce Recovery Masks Deeper Recruitment Crisis
The latest Skills for Care report on the adult social care sector in England reveals encouraging signs: workforce vacancy rates have dipped back to pre-pandemic levels of 7%, down from a peak of 10.5% in 2021/22. Yet, beneath the surface, a slowdown in international recruitment and steady domestic turnover figure highlight long-term challenges that commissioners and providers alike must navigate.
In 2024/25, the adult social care sector recorded around 1.6 million filled posts, marking a 3.4% increase year-on-year, the second highest jump ever seen. Overall, the total number of posts (filled and unfilled) grew to 1.71 million, indicating continued expansion despite recruitment headwinds.
However, the data also reveals worrying undercurrents. Vacancies equate to approximately 111,000 unfilled posts, representing a 12.4% reduction from the prior year, not because of better retention, but due to slower job growth overall. Even more pressing, the number of international recruits dropped sharply, from 105,000 to just 50,000, while British-national hires dropped by 30,000. Since 2020/21, the UK workforce in care has shrunk by 85,000 personnel. https://www.careprovideralliance.org.uk
These trends underscore the reality that, while markets are recovering, the recruitment pipeline remains fragile, especially in light of tighter immigration controls and domestic workforce pressures. The sector now projects needing an additional 470,000 new posts by 2040, an increase of 27%, just to meet the rising demand driven by a rapidly ageing population.
| Metric | Figure |
| Vacancy Rate | 7% (approx. 111,000 posts) |
| Filled Posts | ~1.6 million (+3.4%) |
| Total Posts (incl. vacancies) | ~1.71 million (+2.2%) |
| International Recruits | 50,000 (down from 105,000) |
| British Workforce Drop Since 2020/21 | –85,000 |
| Projected New Posts Needed by 2040 | +470,000 (≈27% increase) |
Why This Matters For Bid Writing?
If you are preparing a tender for health or social care services, whether for a local authority, an NHS Trust, or a Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG), developing a clear understanding of workforce dynamics can make a significant difference to the strength of your bid. Commissioners are not only assessing whether you can deliver the service described in the specification, but also whether you have the foresight, resilience, and resources to maintain that delivery in a challenging labour market. Demonstrating that you recognise the sector-wide pressures gives your organisation credibility and positions you as a reliable, long-term partner.
These pressures are felt in several key areas. Filling vacancies in a highly competitive recruitment market is one of the most obvious. Commissioners know that workforce shortages can directly undermine service delivery, so they want reassurance that your organisation has realistic, evidence-based plans in place. Reducing reliance on overseas recruitment is another emerging theme, especially as immigration policies shift and providers are encouraged to focus on sustainable domestic pipelines. Meeting future demand, too, is a pressing concern, with demographic projections pointing to significant growth in care needs over the next decade. Aligning your bid to these challenges shows that you are forward-thinking and responsive to the realities commissioners face.
At BFT Consult, we specialise in weaving these insights into the heart of your bid narrative. Our approach goes beyond highlighting your organisation’s service capability to demonstrate deep awareness of the wider sector context. For example, we can help you position proposals around workforce planning strategies that highlight resilience, or showcase innovative local recruitment campaigns that build ties with the community while addressing shortages. Including retention models—such as staff development programmes, wellbeing initiatives, and clear career progression pathways—further strengthens your case by showing evaluators that your organisation can sustain its workforce over the lifetime of the contract.
This combination of compliance with tender criteria and strategic alignment with broader workforce sustainability goals demonstrates to commissioners that your organisation is not only fit for purpose today but also prepared for the challenges of tomorrow. By embedding workforce awareness into your submissions, you elevate your bid from being simply responsive to being genuinely competitive.
Interested in current tenders? View live tender opportunities here.
